Recently, international coffee futures prices have risen, which has also driven up domestic coffee spot prices in many countries. Among them, robusta has reached its highest level since October 1994, and local prices in Vietnam have accordingly risen to 101-104 million VND per metric ton (RMB 29,200-30,000). Brazil has also seen simultaneous sharp increases.
In Brazil's largest coffee growing region, Minas Gerais, according to Brazilian grading, the Good Cup arabica spot price is 1,125 reais per 60 kg bag (about RMB 1,606, USD 222), up 5.6% from last year's 1,065 reais and close to the price after the crop reduction caused by frost and drought in 2022.
The price increase has attracted many coffee growers to sell their coffee beans, not only selling existing stocks but also pre-selling beans from the new crop season, with September arabica pre-sales priced at 1,105 to 1,115 reais per 60 kg bag (RMB 1,580, USD 219). In addition, Brazil's domestic robusta coffee spot price broke through a record high, also surpassing the 1,000 mark for the first time, reaching 1,025 reais per 60 kg bag (RMB 1,463, USD 202).
Moreover, Brazil's export performance has been good recently. According to the March export records released by Cecafe, Brazil's total coffee exports in March 2024 were 4.293 million 60 kg bags, up 37.8% compared with the same period last year. From January to March this year, arabica coffee exports were 9.19 million 60 kg bags, up 27.8% from the first quarter of last year, while robusta exports were 1.872 million 60 kg bags, up 591.9% compared with the same period in 2023.
The reason robusta has such a high growth rate is the reduced production in robusta-producing countries in Asia. According to local reports in Indonesia, El Nino has had a major impact on the country's production, and in addition, growth in Indonesia's domestic coffee consumption has led to a decline in export volume. Furthermore, Mexico's imports have increased, and it has jumped to ninth place among Brazil's top 10 importing countries, importing 317,360 bags of Brazilian coffee, up 721.5% compared with the first quarter of 2023, most of which are robusta coffee beans, mainly used by Mexico to make instant coffee.
But at present, Brazil's coffee exports are still affected by the ports. Currently, the delay rate at the largest coffee port, Santos, is still as high as80%. In addition, Brazil is currently experiencing a labor shortage problem, which is mainly due to Brazil's dengue fever outbreak. According to data released by Brazil's Ministry of Health, Brazil's2024dengue fever deaths this year have risen to1116cases, with another1807cases under verification, and these deaths have already exceeded the full-year death toll of previous years, while dengue fever infections have exceeded200ten thousand cases, higher than the full-year record of2023by19%. This has also led to labor shortages in many places. Due to limited foreign vaccine production capacity and tight supply, and currently only one Japanese vaccine has been approved for entry into Brazil, it is necessary to wait for a vaccine developed by a Brazilian research institute.
