Recently, the futures price of Robusta coffee has been rising continuously, even hitting a record high of $4,339 per ton. Currently, the latest July pre-sale price of London Robusta futures is $4,239 per ton, while the pre-sale price at the end of September has also reached $4,246 per ton.The rising coffee prices have also driven up the price of Arabica futures. The continuous increase in coffee prices is mainly driven by market concerns over reduced coffee production in several major producing countries, including Brazil, Vietnam, Indonesia, and Uganda.

According to a report released by the Vietnam Coffee - Cocoa Association, even though export figures are high, coffee production could decrease by 20%, which will affect exports in the second half of 2024. The supply shortage will also lead to a 20% year - on - year decline in exports.

Due to the reduced production in the next quarter and the current upward - trending prices, Vietnamese coffee farmers have started to hoard coffee beans and are reluctant to sell the beans in their hands. There have also been many cases of breach of contract, even for previously signed pre - sale orders.

This has also led to inventory shortages for some coffee companies. For example, Nestlé stated that it needs to purchase more coffee beans from Brazil, India, Indonesia, and other places to maintain supply for its global factories.

In addition, South Korea’s coffee market is growing, and due to its geographic proximity, the country will increase imports of Vietnamese coffee. In

In addition, regarding Arabica futures, although coffee production in Brazil and Colombia is relatively stable, the rise in cocoa futures prices can also drive up coffee futures prices. Earlier, Côte d'Ivoire, the world’s largest cocoa producer, experienced cocoa price volatility due to issues such as political instability and supply chain disruptions, which pushed up global cocoa prices.

Cocoa futures prices in New York and London rose by 166% and 189%, respectively. Coupled with the rise in Robusta futures prices due to reduced production in Vietnam, the resulting ripple effect has driven up Arabica futures prices.

The rise in futures prices for cocoa and Robusta coffee has sparked interest in soft commodities (cocoa, coffee, and sugar) among some investors or large investment firms, prompting buyers to pay higher prices for coffee futures.

In other words, the increase in coffee futures prices is driven by automated trading programs and large investment firms. These market participants react to certain news in the coffee market by purchasing large volumes of coffee contracts and engaging in capital speculation, thereby pushing up prices.

Additionally, many buyers in Europe and the United States have shifted their focus to Arabica coffee beans from Central and South America, which has also contributed to the rising prices of Arabica coffee beans. According to a green coffee bean trader, overall current offers for green coffee beans have seen a year-on-year increase of around 20%, with Robusta coffee bean prices rising by over 30% compared to the same period last year.