According to media reports, in recent days, as Indonesia entered its rainy season, but this rainy season has been extremely strong, with many areas hit by natural disasters triggered by heavy rainfall. For consecutive days, floods, landslides, and collapsing houses and trees have occurred frequently, with many areas affected to varying degrees.

At present, the most severely affected area is West Java Province on the island of Java, where multiple landslides have occurred in recent days, causing 10 deaths, 2 missing, and nearly 5,000 people affected. Earlier, at the end of November, North Sumatra Province was also hit by flash floods and mudslides, with a cumulative 20 deaths.

In addition, near West Java Province, several coastal areas including the old capital Jakarta have been inundated by floods. This situation has lasted for more than 5 days, and in some areas floodwater levels have reached as high as 70 cm. The main causes are recent sea tides, high waves caused by extreme weather, river flooding, and land subsidence.

Earlier, northern Sumatra, near the Rindong area, also experienced heavy rainfall, as well as secondary disasters brought by torrential rain such as flash floods, mudslides, and landslides, causing 20 deaths and damaging public facilities including schools, farms, and roads, with severe impact.

At present, Indonesia is in its harvest season, and the current heavy rain weather is greatly affecting the harvest progress. In addition, the areas where disasters have occurred during this period are all near the country's main coffee-producing regions, which may cause damage to coffee plantations, though there is not yet specific information.

The Chinese Consulate General in Surabaya and the Chinese Consulate General in Denpasar have issued emergency notices, reminding Chinese citizens in their consular districts to pay close attention to meteorological warning information, avoid high-risk areas for landslides and floods, and take care when traveling during the rainy season.

In 2023/24, Indonesia was affected by La Nina and El Nino phenomena, experiencing severe drought, high temperatures and water shortages, which led to a sharp decline in coffee production. However, the climate was stable in the second half of this year, so production is expected to recover.

According to reports from the Indonesian government, in October, Robusta coffee exports from Sumatra, Indonesia's largest coffee-producing region, reached 532,287 bags (60 kg/bag), an increase of 100% compared with the same period last year. But the recovery in coffee production is still below expectations, so the market expects coffee production in 2024/25 to reach 10.9 million bags.

However, this production figure is down 8% from before, and because Indonesia's domestic coffee demand is large, although recent reports indicate that Indonesia's domestic purchasing power continued to be weak in 2024/25, growing by less than 1% compared with 2023/24, as production has not increased, coffee available for export is expected to fall by 12%, leaving 5.2 million bags available for export.

In addition, Indonesia has recently also been affected by currency exchange rates, as the US dollar has continued to strengthen in recent times. In early December, the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate against the US dollar once broke through the 16,000 mark, the lowest point in nearly 4 months. Facing this situation, Indonesia's central bank took emergency "market rescue" measures. However, the exchange rate remains high, and due to exchange rate and geopolitical issues, exports have decreased and fertilizer prices have risen.

In addition, as Vietnam has now entered the coffee harvest season, exports have increased, causing robusta coffee futures prices to fall. However, the market is not optimistic about coffee production in Vietnam and Brazil, and Indonesia's production has not recovered either, so robusta coffee prices will see another rise before long.

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