In recent times, coffee-growing regions in Brazil have still been affected by the El Nino phenomenon, remaining in relatively dry weather, and the drier weather is favorable for local coffee harvesting work. But according to the Safras&Mercado report, harvesting work is currently accelerating, and as of June 25, Brazil has already harvested 50% of its coffee production, higher than the average harvest progress of 45% in the same period over the past 5 years.

Among this, the Arabica coffee harvest progress is 35%, and the Robusta coffee harvest progress is 62%, both higher than the harvest progress in the same period over the past 5 years.Although the harvest progress is relatively fast, judging from the actual harvest so far, the performance of the growing regions is not as ideal as expected, mainly because the actual production is lower than previously expected by the market, and secondly because of the problem of coffee beans being on the small side.

And the Brazilian meteorological forecasting agency Somar Meteorologia reported that some states in Brazil had rainfall, but the rainfall amount was limited. But some states had dry weather, especially Minas Gerais, which has had no rainfall for 3 consecutive weeks, and the weather is expected to remain dry for a period of time in the future.

At the same time, however, there are also concerns that drier weather conditions than usual will adversely affect Brazil's coffee crop: hot, dry conditions favor the growth and spread of certain pests, affecting both yield and quality, and thus accelerating the pace of harvesting. But a dry climate is favorable for processing coffee cherries, and through good drying, processing and storage procedures, this helps improve coffee bean quality.

As for robusta coffee, judging by the harvest situation, actual output is clearly lower than previous market expectations, and total production is expected to fall by around 8%-14%, since some robusta coffee-producing regions have reported a 20% decline in output.

At present, robusta futures prices are basically holding at around 4,000 USD/tonne, all because drought weather in Vietnam has led to reduced robusta output; if Brazil's robusta output also declines, robusta futures prices will continue to rise in the future. The robusta coffee spot price index closed at 1,195.94 Brazilian real/bag (each bag 60 kg), up 4.07% compared with the end of May.

However, after experiencing high temperatures, Brazil will usher in a strong cold snap, and temperatures in Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro may set cold records. According to data from the meteorological bureau, parts of Rio Grande do Sul, Santa Catarina and Parana will be the worst affected, with temperatures in some areas possibly as low as -8ºC, while temperatures in other areas may be below normal, and this is common before a strong cold air mass crosses the country's central region. It may also bring a certain impact on some coffee-producing regions.

Therefore, many experts earlier initially estimated Brazil's total production at about 68.5 million bags, but at present, as the harvest proceeds, due to the occurrence of smaller-than-usual coffee beans, uneven ripeness and the arrival of the strong cold snap, Brazil's total coffee production is expected to be revised down to 67 million bags.