According to Indonesian media reports, in recent days in northern Sumatra, multiple areas of North Sumatra province experienced heavy rain, along with secondary disasters such as flash floods and landslides brought by the heavy rain, which have so far caused 20 deaths and many injuries.

According to a report by Indonesia's National Disaster Management Agency (BNPB), the death toll in North Sumatra province from floods and landslides has risen to 20, with Karo Regency being the worst affected, with 10 deaths, followed by Deli Serdang Regency with 7; 2 people remain missing, and search and rescue work is ongoing.

It is understood that every November, Indonesia enters its rainy season, and according to earlier data from Indonesia's meteorological agency BMKG, during November to December this year, western Sumatra will see the peak of the rainy season. As a result, relatively strong rainfall occurred in recent days, which led to this severe flood and landslide disaster.

In addition, the head of disaster data at BNPB said that this disaster caused severe damage to 6 local houses and destroyed public facilities such as schools, places of worship, farms and roads. Furthermore, North Sumatra province is also the island's main Arabica coffee growing region, and the well-known Mandheling coffee is grown in the Lintong area in the central part of the province, so this severe rainfall and the resulting disasters have also affected the Arabica coffee industry in the region.

In addition, Deli Serdang Regency, which was relatively severely affected by this disaster, is located north of the island's provincial capital Medan and is the island's main transport route for goods, leading to the Medan seaport. However, some areas and roads have been damaged by landslides and other disasters, causing the import and export business there to be hindered.

As early as September this year, Sumatra had already been hit by severe weather. According to reports, the northern Aceh region of the island and surrounding areas experienced heavy rainfall and strong winds, with maximum wind speeds reaching 55.56 km per hour, close to hurricane level. This also caused damage to multiple buildings, sports facilities and infrastructure in the Aceh region, and one person died as a result.

However, the September disaster was mainly concentrated in the north of Sumatra, having a greater impact on Arabica coffee-producing areas, and did not affect the Robusta-producing areas in the south of the island. According to official Indonesian data, in September Sumatra exported a total of 369,332 bags of Robusta coffee (60 kg/bag), an increase of 76.36% compared with the same period last year. This figure also helped Sumatra export a cumulative 1.268 million bags of coffee in the first 6 months of the 2024/25 year (April to March of the following year), an increase of 14.28% compared with the same period last year.

Therefore, at that time the market conservatively estimated that Indonesia's coffee production in the 2024/25 year would be about 11.5 million bags, of which 85% would be Robusta coffee and the remaining 15% Arabica coffee. Currently the island is also in its Arabica harvest season, but consecutive days of heavy rain may knock ripe cherries off the trees and cause a reduction in yield, while flash floods and landslides will also have a certain impact.

In addition, BNPB still reminds local governments and residents to raise their vigilance, all because weather forecasts say that North Sumatra province and other places will still have extreme weather such as heavy rain, thunderstorms and strong winds in the coming days, and disasters may occur again. Therefore the market is also bearish on the Arabica coffee supply from Sumatra in the new production season, and as multiple coffee-producing countries report reduced output, international coffee prices remain high.

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