The arrival of the pandemic threw supply chains around the world into disarray. But coffee suffered an even more severe blow: drought and frost sent Brazil's coffee output plunging; then came the pile-up of shipping containers, with shipping space impossible to secure. The rise of the pandemic also led to restrictions being imposed again and again, blocking road transport and leaving estates short of labor.

While China was still immersed in the joy of putting on winter weight during the Spring Festival, word came that ICE coffee stocks had fallen to their lowest level in 22 years, while the ICE arabica futures price also hit its highest level in more than 10 years on February 9, closing that day at 258.35 cents/lb. Since last September, ICE coffee stocks have been declining, blamed on soaring transport costs and bad weather that caused Brazil's coffee output to fall. It could be said that when Brazil sneezes, the whole world shivers. The repeated rise in coffee futures prices has also placed an ever heavier burden on end consumers; the prices marked on coffee in cafes are getting higher and higher, leaving consumers miserable.

Low exchange inventories have also become one of the bullish factors driving coffee prices higher. Today, Brazil accounts for 39% of ICE-certified stocks, down from 55% last year. Because of high shipping costs, Brazilian producers prefer to sell their goods to the domestic market and earn more profit from it.

And to solve the most pressing problem in shipping today, the container shortage, unlike in previous years when coffee was shipped around the world in full containers, Brazil has been forced to export its coffee beans directly in "tonne bags" rather than in the traditional 60 kg bags; it has even chosen to use dry bulk vessels for loading.

Even though Brazil is now trying every possible way to export green coffee beans around the world, its green coffee bean exports fell 11.8% in January. Cecafe staff said insufficient vessel space is a major challenge they now face, while last year's decline in coffee production has reduced Brazil's coffee bean inventories.

As picking for Brazil's new coffee crop season begins in the coming 4 months, and since this year is a big production year for Brazilian coffee, the tight inventory situation is expected to ease by then.