Earlier, the futures prices of both Arabica and Robusta coffee beans saw an increase. Among them, the price of Arabica coffee futures climbed 12.5% to its highest level since October 2022.

In addition, according to data from the U.S. government’s Climate Prediction Center, there is a 60% chance of a La Niña event occurring in August during the second half of the year between El Niño phases. Typically, La Niña intensifies convection activity in Southeast Asia, leading to an abnormal increase in storms and rainfall, which can easily trigger disasters such as floods.

Additionally, Brazil has also been affected by the weather. The cumulative rainfall in Brazil’s Robusta coffee-growing regions in 2023 was at its lowest level in ten years. Although rainfall recovered somewhat in early 2024, it was insufficient to make up for the impact of the 2023 drought. The upcoming La Niña weather may lead to reduced rainfall and cooler temperatures in southeastern Brazil, while increasing rainfall and humidity in the northeast. Cold weather could cause a rapid drop in temperatures in coffee-growing areas, bringing frost disasters that damage both the current and future coffee yields.

Moreover, there is another potential crisis at present: the conflict between Israel and Iran. On the evening of April 13, 2024, Iran launched dozens of missiles and drones at Israeli targets. Afterwards, the President of Israel stated that Israel does not seek "a war with Iran," but the attack "must be responded to."

However, Iran is one of the world’s major oil-producing countries, and the Middle East is the most important global source of oil supply. If the conflict between Iran and Israel continues, the market is concerned that future oil sanctions against Iran may become stricter, leading to reduced oil supply and causing oil prices to surge, which would negatively impact the global transportation industry. As a result, for the coffee trade that relies on railways and shipping, transportation costs will rise further, and coffee prices will also increase accordingly.