In late April, coffee futures prices continued to rise, with Robusta coffee futures even hitting a record high of $4,339 per ton, and the resulting ripple effects also pushed up Arabica futures prices.

Apart from coffee, the trading prices of most tropical agricultural commodities, such as cocoa, coffee, and sugar, have also fallen by nearly 14% under the influence of this factor.

Previously, local coffee prices in Vietnam soared wildly due to a recent heatwave hitting Southeast Asia. The central coffee-growing regions of Vietnam experienced severe drought and water shortages, leaving coffee trees without adequate irrigation and resulting in reduced yields.

In addition to weather, Vietnamese coffee also faces competition from other fruit crops, especially durians and mangoes. According to local Vietnamese media, durian exports in 2023 increased significantly, particularly to China, reaching more than five times the 2022 volume, with export revenue exceeding $2 billion. This has led local farmers to shift to more profitable crops. The lack of investment in Vietnam’s coffee industry has prompted farmers to turn to higher-value crops such as durians and mangoes. This is also a reason why coffee cultivation areas in Vietnam are shrinking, which could affect Vietnam’s future coffee production in the long run. In 2012, a similar situation occurred in the global coffee market—due to a sharp rise in coffee prices, many farmers switched to coffee cultivation. But as the rust disease eased and planting areas expanded significantly, coffee prices plummeted by 70% a few years later.

Vietnamese durians were only approved for export to China in 2022, yet by 2023 they accounted for 31.8% of China’s durian market share, with an upward trend entering 2024.

Moreover, the Vietnamese dong has been continuously depreciating, with the USD/VND exchange rate reaching new highs these past two days, peaking at 24,245.