Recently, according to Colombian media reports, based on data from the National Federation of Coffee Growers of Colombia (FNC), the National Administrative Department of Statistics (DANE) and the National Directorate of Taxes and Customs (DIAN), it is expected that by the end of this year, China will become the sixth-largest export market for Colombian coffee, and in the coming years will become the second-largest export market.

According to the president of the Colombian National Association of Coffee Exporters (Asoexport), for Colombian coffee exporters, the Chinese market is extremely attractive because consumption in this market has grown strongly year after year. Among Colombia's main coffee export destinations in 2019, China ranked only 18th, but by 2023 it had jumped to sixth place, with export volume reaching 540,000 bags (60 kg/bag).

The latest data shows that from January to August 2024, Colombia's total coffee export value reached 2.193 billion USD, up 13% year on year, with export volume reaching 7.8 million bags, up 16% year on year. The top five export destinations were the United States, Canada, Belgium, Germany and Japan, while China remained in sixth place.

In addition, the market research firm "Mordor Intelligence" reported that China's coffee market size reached 2.06 billion USD in 2023 and is expected to reach 2.26 billion USD in 2028, with a compound annual growth rate of 1.90% from 2023 to 2028. At present, the growth in China's coffee demand is mainly driven by the rapid expansion of domestic and international coffee chains.

Moreover, according to a report by Colombia's FNC, Colombia previously experienced La Nina, which caused Colombian coffee production to decline for 3 consecutive years, but in 2023 there was a small increase of 2%, and in 2024 production began to recover, with full-year output for 2023/24 expected to reach 13 million bags, an increase of 15%, and export volume expected to reach 12 million bags.

However, Colombia still faces quite a few problems at present. It is reported that, rather than increasing coffee planting area, Colombia places more emphasis on per-unit yield capacity, and hopes to achieve this goal by renovating coffee trees. But this year there are still quite a few climate problems, and the more serious ones affecting it are drought and wildfires.

According to reports, starting in January of this year, Colombia began to experience dry weather, and water levels in multiple reservoirs dropped severely. Fortunately, the rainy season began in May and rainfall started to recover, so the impact on the coffee industry was not very great. But by September, the drought intensified and also led to large-scale forest fires. According to Colombia's National Unit for Risk and Disaster Management, nearly 11,000 hectares of land in Colombia have been burned by the fires. Coffee and sugarcane plantations were also involved.

At the same time, armed conflict broke out in Colombia, mainly exchanges of fire with the Central General Staff, the largest branch of the country's largest anti-government armed group, the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia. This armed group has continuously launched attacks in the southwestern departments of Narino, Cauca and Valle del Cauca, causing multiple soldiers, police officers and civilians to be injured. In recent days, as the fighting has escalated, the Colombian government has dispatched more than 1,400 soldiers and deployed fighter jets, tanks, artillery and other heavy equipment to launch a surprise attack on the main strongholds of the Central General Staff, affecting development in some areas.

For Colombia's coffee industry, although extreme weather such as droughts and fires earlier had a serious impact on the coffee industry, with a slight effect on coffee production, conditions are somewhat improved compared with last year. At present, regional security is one of the key issues the country's government needs to resolve.

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