According to recent statements from Mexican and Guatemalan officials, more than 500 Mexicans have fled into Guatemalan territory to escape violent conflicts involving drug trafficking cartels within Mexico.

According to Mexican media reports, the notorious Mexican Sinaloa Cartel and another cartel known as "Jalisco New Generation" have repeatedly clashed in Chiapas, southern Mexico, and residents have been subjected to robbery and other violent abuses. In addition, a group of criminals also looted a small town in Chiapas and drove out all the town's residents.

According to official Guatemalan statistics, about 580 Mexicans are currently taking refuge within Guatemalan territory. A small community in Guatemala is currently sheltering these refugees. However, according to the community leader, more Mexican refugees are expected to arrive in Guatemala in the coming days.

According to reports, the violent conflicts involving drug trafficking organizations have caused at least 19 deaths in Chiapas, and there are reports that drug trafficking organizations have forcibly recruited young people into their ranks, with the youngest being only 15 years old. Residents said the Mexican army and National Guard have arrived at the scene, but have not taken measures to protect civilians.

It is understood that the conflict between the Sinaloa Cartel and the Jalisco New Generation Cartel has continued on and off for nearly three years, and the cause of the conflict is that the two cartels are fighting over drug smuggling routes in the region. It has also repeatedly caused large-scale displacement of residents, and in recent times the violence has escalated.

Earlier, in early July, an armed conflict occurred in La Concordia, Chiapas, Mexico, causing at least 20 deaths. This conflict was likewise triggered by some drug cartels fighting for control of the southern border region of Mexico.

The recent conflict is affecting Mexico's coffee industry, because the area where the conflict is taking place is Chiapas in southern Mexico, the most important and highest-producing coffee state in Mexico. Chiapas has 9 regions, all of which grow coffee, accounting for 44% of Mexico's coffee production. It has about 178,000 coffee farmers, all smallholders who grow coffee as family units.

The violent conflict has driven these farmers out, forcing them to leave their homes and flee to Guatemala, which has also left the coffee trees unattended during this period and may cause damage to the coffee trees, ultimately leading to reduced coffee production.

Earlier, local reports in Mexico had already indicated that the coffee industry was severely affected by the climate. Due to high temperatures, drought and insufficient rainfall in the first half of the year, about 80% of Mexico's coffee-growing area was affected, and industry insiders expect the 2024/25 crop year to see a reduction of up to 50%. This latest event may make the production decline even worse.

In addition, multiple coffee-producing countries worldwide, including Brazil, Vietnam and Indonesia, have reported declining coffee production, which is keeping coffee prices high. Although Mexico is currently the world's eighth-largest coffee-producing country and ninth-largest coffee-exporting country, reduced coffee production and increased domestic coffee consumption will both reduce the volume of coffee available for export, which will likewise have a further impact on international coffee prices.