According to Ethiopian media reports, the chairman of the Tigray regional interim government of Ethiopia met with the US Special Envoy for the Horn of Africa on September 12 to discuss the challenges and opportunities in implementing the "Pretoria Peace Agreement." It is said that the two sides focused their discussion on the specific difficulties constraining the implementation of the agreement and explored potential solutions to advance it.

Afterward, the US special envoy said that the US government is committed to supporting the Tigray interim government in accelerating and completing its tasks. The chairman of the Tigray interim government stressed that the international community now needs to jointly exert pressure to fully implement the agreement, so that displaced people can return home and the humanitarian crisis facing Tigray refugees can be resolved; otherwise, it may have serious consequences for peace and stability in the region.According to the US embassy's social media, both sides agreed that the "Pretoria Cessation of Hostilities Agreement" must be fully implemented to achieve lasting peace in the Tigray region.

It is understood that in November 2020, a large-scale civil war broke out in Ethiopia, triggered by the eruption of contradictions between the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) in the Tigray region and Ethiopia's federal central government. After two years of war, the two sides signed a ceasefire agreement, the "Pretoria Peace Agreement," in Pretoria, the capital of South Africa, in November 2022, and established the Tigray Interim Administration (TIA) to govern the region.

Even though the two sides signed a peace agreement, riots have still occurred recently between the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) and the Ethiopian government, and due to long-standing land disputes, the riots have turned into prolonged violent conflict. Moreover, some actions by the Ethiopian government have caused dissatisfaction among armed forces in the Amhara region, sparking even larger conflict.

However, divisions have recently emerged within the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF), with some people dissatisfied with the current interim chairman, and the worsening divisions among internal factions carry a trend toward the outbreak of civil war. Therefore, on September 10 of this year, the vice chairman of the Tigray regional interim government and director of the Cabinet Secretariat for Peace and Security issued a stern warning to the various factions within the TPLF, demanding an end to activities that exacerbate political chaos and public disunity. But the current US intervention could intensify divisions and emotions on both sides.

Based on the current situation, divisions within the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) are severe, and a regional civil war could break out at any time. The Ethiopian government will also intervene in this situation, and a larger and more serious civil war may erupt, causing severe impacts on multiple industries in Ethiopia.

At present, due to the foreign exchange policy previously launched by the Ethiopian government, the Ethiopian currency has depreciated and local prices have risen. Even though the government provides some subsidies, prices are still rising severely. This is especially true for grain products, meat and cooking oil. Compared with a while ago, the price of lamb has increased by 1,000-2,000 birr, and some products are 4 times more expensive. Daily necessities such as onions and teff have also become more expensive.

Tigray Region, located in the northernmost part of Ethiopia, is an important agricultural area, mainly growing grain crops such as wheat and corn, as well as raising livestock such as cattle and sheep, mainly supplying the Ethiopian domestic market. At present, the internal struggle in the region and the ongoing violent conflicts will intensify Ethiopia's inflation, prices will continue to rise, and the cost of living will increase.

For the country's very important coffee industry, although the current conflict is mainly in the north and does not pose a major security threat to the coffee-producing areas in the south, the most serious problem at present is exchange rate instability and rising costs. Because the country's security problems are serious, the exchange rate is very easily affected, coffee prices will also rise, and illegal trade may surge, which is not conducive to industry development.

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