In April this year, coffee futures prices soared wildly, especially for Robusta beans, which even hit a record high of $4,399 per ton.

However, in early May, Brazil and Vietnam, two major coffee-producing countries, released their April export reports, which showed increases in both production and exports. Additionally, the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) also reported a recovery in coffee inventory levels, easing prices. As a result, Robusta coffee futures fell to $3,440 per ton.

But recently, due to ongoing and unresolved weather issues in Brazil and Vietnam, coffee prices have surged again. Currently, July-delivery Robusta futures have risen to $3,917 per ton, approaching the $4,000 mark.

According to a report by coffee trader Volcafe, Vietnam’s Robusta coffee production for the 2024/25 season may only reach 24 million bags, the lowest level in 13 years, primarily due to earlier drought and insufficient rainfall in the country.

Even though there was rainfall in early May, it did not alleviate the drought. According to the Vietnam Meteorological Administration, over the past 10 days, rainfall in Vietnam’s Central Highlands was 195.6 mm, 41% below the average, causing serious damage to coffee trees currently in their flowering stage, including withering, which will in turn affect the yield of the next coffee season.

In addition, in Brazil, according to meteorological reports, the main coffee-producing region of Minas Gerais has not received any rainfall over the past week, and this marks the fourth consecutive week without rain in the area.

In addition, the market is also concerned about news that the La Niña phenomenon is expected to return in the summer (June–August), which will lead to widespread and sustained abnormal cooling of sea surface temperatures in the eastern and central equatorial Pacific. This could subject multiple countries to severe weather conditions, ultimately affecting coffee production.

As a result, Volcafe also forecast a global Robusta bean supply shortage of 4.6 million bags for the 2024/25 season. Although smaller than the 9 million bags of supply shortage in the 2023/24 season, this marks the fourth consecutive year of Robusta supply shortages. Driven by these factors, Robusta futures prices have begun to rise and are expected to continue trending upward in the future.

Robusta is the base bean for instant coffee and blends. It may seem that professional baristas don’t like Robusta, yet it actually has a real impact on the price of coffee beans every year.